# User talk:Thisisnotatest

You don't need monte carlo simulations for things like gong drops. They're straight unvarying probabilities. Average total turns to get 2 drops would be 1/.2 + 1/.15, with a 20% for the first and 15% for the second. One only really needs the simulations for things that involve getting specific (but otherwise normal) combats/noncombats, since the probabilities depend on the previous 5 such events thanks to the queue, and there's a ridiculous number of possibilities that can pop up. --Flargen 02:03, 6 April 2011 (UTC)

You're right. I admit I was more interested in writing a fun Python script than thinking through that the expected values could be summed. And hey, I could figure out the median and mode values this way. :-) --thisisnotatest 02:10, 6 April 2011 (UTC)