Talk:Lucky Surprise Egg
Likelihood of Rares
Since it’s something that I have been wondering about, and since no one has done much about it yet, I wonder, exactly how rare are the RARE Tiny Plastic drops from Lucky Surprise eggs? I created the table, and have already added in all of the information for the 16 day run(Thanks to the data from ArgghFW), so don't add it in again. When you add data to the table, make sure to ADD all of the information necessary, and to accumulate th e TOTAL number as well. (Aevum Decessus 17:54, 9 February 2007 (CST))
|spooky pirate skeleton||18|
|howling balloon monkey||19|
|baby gravy fairy||24|
|ghost pickle on a stick||19|
- I have added a reference to Kinder Surprise, which this is obviously a reference to
Prize ratio data
In 50 LSEs eaten for the trophy, I received 48 C, 2 U, and 0 r. --RyokoYahagi 17:28, 31 March 2006 (CST)
I ate 165, and received no rares and 12 Uncommon. One each of those uncommons was a meatcar and a hermit. --Iason 16:15, 11 March 2007 (CDT)
Sixteen day drop log
This is a 16-day (1 KOl Ronald/Grimace cycle) log of lucky surprise egg consumption - 20 per day, with stomach, 320 total - conducted to tell whether my old gut feeling that the uncommons dropped more on myst days. I was a pastamancer back then, in pre-ascension times, and bagged a single rare from 300-odd eggs. This time in, I'm disco bandit.
If someone wiki-literate can tidy the formatting, that'd be appreciated :)
Summary Totals for the bi-kol-month:-
Sat Boozember 1 (Mox) = 17(c), 3(uc) (PM, DB, AT) Sun Boozember 2 = 16(c), 4(uc) (TT, SA, AT, Hermit) Mon Boozember 3 = 19(c), 1(uc) (SA) Tue Boozember 4 = 17(c), 3(uc) (DB, AT, BMCar) Wed Boozember 5 (Mys) = 16(c), 4(uc) (TT, SA, PM, Hermit) Thu Boozember 6 = 19(c), 1(uc) (DB) Fri Boozember 7 (FOB) = 20(c), 0(uc) Sat Boozember 8 = 19(c), 1(uc) (Hermit) Sun Dougtember 1 (Mus) = 20(c), 0(uc) Mon Dougtember 2 (Mus) = 15(c), 5(uc) (SC, TT, DB, BMCar, Hermit) Tue Dougtember 3 = 19(c), 1(uc) (Hermit) Wed Dougtember 4 = 20(c), 0(uc) Thu Dougtember 5 (Mys) = 19(c), 1(uc) (AT) Fri Dougtember 6 = 19(c), 1(uc) (AT) Sat Dougtember 7 = 18(c), 2(uc) (TT, BMCar) Sun Dougtember 8 (Mox) = 18(c), 2(uc) (SA*2)
Common & Uncommon ratio:-
320 = 291(c) 29(uc) 0(r) = 1 in 10 for uncommons.
29(uc) = 1*SC, 4*TT, 5*SA, 2*PM, 4*DB, 5*AT, 5*Hermit, 3*BMCar
Not a big enough sample really, but Hermits & BMCars don't seem to be any less likely than the rest(other than for the obvious reason that there're two of them against six classes).
Stat day considerations (the original purpose of this log)
(uc) on stat days: (3+4+0+5+1+2 = 15)/6 = 2.5/day (uc) on non-stat days: (4+1+3+1+0+1+1+0+1+2 = 14)/10 = 1.4/day
Again, not a big enough sample, but it still looks to me as if there's a moon-related distribution of some sort.
Common distribution, for what it's worth:-
Angr 19, Baby 15, Barr 17, Bloo 13, Ches 13, Coco 12, Coff 19, Fuzz 10, Ghos 14, Ghuo 16, Grue 12, Howl 14, Kill 24, Lepr 16, Levi 11, Mosq 8, Sabr 22, Spoo 16, Stab 9, Star 11
Full statistics Included in case anyone's interested in studying the detailed distributions. While there's certainly some odd clumping, but the RNG can do that sort of thing.
Sat 17th June 2006 Boozember 1, Mox
Moons: moon1.gif, moon1.gif. Lepr,Mosq,Lepr,Spoo,Ghuo, Levi,Angr,PAST,Angr,Angr, Angr,Ghos,Sabr,Ghos,DISC, Angr,Coff,Star,Ghuo,ACCO
Moons: moon2a.gif, moon1.gif. Mosq,Stab,Coff,Howl,Bloo, Coff,Stab,Lepr,Kill,SAUC, TURT,Howl,Coff,Howl,Angr, ACCO,Baby,HERM,Sabr,Stab
Moons: moon3.gif, minimoon.gif, moon2.gif. Ches,Sabr,Ghos,Angr,Coff, Lepr,Ghos,Star,Ghuo,Spoo, Grue,Spoo,Spoo,Sabr,SAUC, Spoo,Lepr,Barr,Star,Howl
Moons: moon4.gif, moon2b.gif. Grue,Grue,Ghos,DISC,Grue, Howl,ACCO,Sabr,Kill,Ghos, Grue,Kill,BITC,Baby,Ghuo, Coff,Lepr,Barr,Coff,Baby
Boozember 5, Myst
Moons: moon5.gif, moon3.gif. Spoo,TURT,Sabr,HERM,Ghos, Baby,SAUC,Sabr,PAST,Ghos, Lepr,Levi,Stab,Howl,Bloo, Angr,Baby,Kill,Barr,Howl
Moons: moon6.gif, minimoon.gif, moon3.gif. Mosq,Grue,Bloo,Coff,Sabr, Ghuo,Fuzz,Ches,Levi,Kill, Howl,Barr,Coco,Grue,Levi, Mosq,Sabr,DISC,Angr,Sabr
Boozember 7. Feast of Boris
Moons: minimoon2.gif, moon7.gif moon4.gif. Angr,Sabr,Mosq,Baby,Coff, Fuzz,Baby,Barr,Kill,Grue, Kill,Baby,Kill,Howl,Howl, Levi,Ghuo,Lepr,Spoo,Baby
Moons: moon8b.gif moon4.gif. HERM,Kill,Barr,Lepr,Ghuo, Sabr,Angr,Lepr,Howl,Baby, Sabr,Howl,Ghuo,Bloo,Barr, Barr,Ghuo,Coco,Fuzz,Grue
Dougtember 1. Musc
Moons: moon1.gif, moon5a.gif. Ghos,Howl,Sabr,Coco,Star, Star,Kill,Spoo,Coco,Angr, Baby,Fuzz,Kill,Levi,Ches, Stab,Coff,Spoo,Ghos,Star
Dougtember 2. Musc
Moons: moon2.gif, moon5.gif, minimoon.gif. Coco,Coco,TURT,SEAL,Barr, Coff,BITC,Sabr,Bloo,Howl, Kill,Spoo,Sabr,Fuzz,HERM, DISC,Levi,Ches,Lepr,Star
Moons: moon3.gif, minimoon2.gif, moon6.gif. Star,Ghuo,Baby,Kill,Kill, Baby,Sabr,Kill,HERM,Spoo, Coff,Coco,Kill,Coff,Ghos, Barr,Sabr,Fuzz,Bloo,Coff
Moons: moon4.gif, moon6.gif. Ghuo,Coff,Levi,Lepr,Fuzz, Spoo,Fuzz,Ghuo,Coco,Bloo, Lepr,Fuzz,Bloo,Ghos,Stab, Coff,Baby,Barr,Kill,Spoo
Dougtember 5. Myst
Moons: moon5a.gif, moon7.gif. ACCO,Ghuo,Barr,Angr,Lepr, Star,Angr,Barr,Levi,Kill, Ghos,Ches,Stab,Stab,Angr, Coco,Angr,Kill,Angr,Kill
Moons: moon6.gif, minimoon.gif, moon7.gif. ACCO,Sabr,Barr,Kill,Angr, Mosq,Sarb,Lepr,Kill,Coco, Ches,Ghuo,Coff,Kill,Grue, Grue,Sabr,Star,Mosq,Ches
Moons: moon7.gif, moon8b.gif. Coco,Spoo,Stab,Bloo,Fuzz, Ches,Ches,Ghos,BITC,Levi, Barr,Bloo,Spoo,Spoo,Ches, Barr,Lepr,TURT,Coff,Ches
Dougtember 8. Mox.
Moons: moon8.gif, moon8.gif. Star,Ches,Barr,Bloo,Sabr, Ghuo,Coco,Kill,Bloo,Levi, Ghuo,Mosq,SAUC,Ches,Angr, Grue,Coff,Bloo,Baby,SAUC
--ArgghFW 10:36, 3 July 2006 (CDT)
Just got the first Rare on the chart - Tiny Plastic Susie. Oddly enough, that would make the odds of getting a Rare (according to the chart above) something like .30% (or 1 out of 330). Which actually matches up quite well to my own personal experience of 1 out of 319, or around .31% Too bad the sample size is still way too small to form a representative sample... and the irregular nature of data collection means that the results may not be accurate anyway. Someone should offer Jick $50 to reveal the actual drop-rates. :P Hossenfeffer 15:58, 8 May 2007 (CDT)
Here's my experience getting rares (I didn't track everything else): Jarlsberg after 192 eggs (also I used 1 doll house that gave 4 figures). Boris after 467 more eggs, 659 total eggs. Boris after 989 more eggs, 1648 total eggs. I was getting worried that rares weren't dropping anymore. I zapped it into a Sneaky Pete. Susie after 269 more eggs, 1917 total eggs. I was thrilled this happened so quickly (relatively). That's an average of one every 479.25 eggs or about .2%. -- Wagr 9:50, 24 June 2007 (MDT)
I reverted an edit which had placed the following note on the actual Egg page:
"It appears that the drop rate of rare tiny plastics decreases with the number of eggs eaten, and that there may be a limit to the total number of rare drops available from Lucky Surprise Eggs to a given player. This needs confirmation."
Based on the data on this talk page the note appears to be unsubstantiated. If I was incorrect and the numbers do support this theory then please feel free to re-add it to the page in a proper "needs spading" box. Bakapyrite 15:17, 19 March 2008 (CDT)