Hit Chance

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There have been at least 2 major mechanics changes in this part of the game since this page was written. The whole thing needs to be respaded from the very beginning.

[ Return to Game Mechanics ] The first, most important, step towards rifling through the pockets of a corpse is creating a corpse with pockets to be rifled. To achieve this lofty goal, one must first hit one's opponent. For regular, weapon-based combat, your chances to hit a given foe are determined by comparing your Attack to your opponent's Defense; the difference determines your chances to hit.

Your Attack is the buffed stat with which you are attacking: Muscle for melee weapons or mysticality weapons, and Moxie for ranged weapons. If you don't have a weapon equipped, then Muscle is used to determine your attack.

Your Defense is equal to your Moxie. Monsters skip all of the Muscle/Moxie nonsense and have straight Attack and Defense stats.

Hit Chance Formula

The exact hit rate mechanic is not linear, but this is a useful approximation suitable for almost all gameplay purposes:

Hit % = 6 + Attack - Defense × (100 - Fumble%)

For example: your Seal Clubber has 153 Muscle, lacks Eye of the Stoat, and is fighting something with 150 Defense.

Hit % = 6 + 153 - 150 × (100 - 4.545) = 78.1%

In other words: of the times you do not fumble, when your Attack equals your target's Defense there is a slightly better than 1/2, or 54.5%, chance to hit. For every additional point of Attack you have, add 1/11, or 9.1%, to your non-fumble chances to hit. For every additional point of Defense your target has, subtract 1/11, or 9.1%, from your non-fumble chances to hit. Below -6 Attack (relative to monster defense) you will always miss; above +5 Attack (relative to monster defense) you will always hit. At exactly -6 and +5 there is a zero chance of missing/hitting.

Some fraction of all attack attempts will be critical hits, and the rest of the hits will be normal. Given a fumble rate of fumbrate and a critical rate of critrate, the final outcomes are:

baserate = ((6+attack-defense)/11), minimum 0 maximum 1
fumble chance = fumbrate
normal hit = (1-fumbrate)*(baserate-critrate)
critical hit = (baserate) or (critrate), whichever is lesser
miss = (1-fumbrate)*(1-baserate)

Regular Attacks Can't Miss

Certain pieces of equipment and effects grant the ability to never miss with regular attacks, although you can still fumble. These are:


  • When dealing with stats over 200 you start needing progressivly more attack over the monsters defense in order to always hit.
  • Information about Monster Hit Chance can be found at Monsters.


  • Before NS13, Mysticality was an attack stat if you were wielding a staff and had either Spirit of Rigatoni or a special sauce glove equipped. However, the introduction of mysticality weapons made this ability irrelevant, and they now allow the ability to wield chefstaves.
  • Critical hits became automatic hits on March 27, 2008.
  • The hit rate mechanics were quietly changed at some point after that, probably when monster criticals/fumbles were introduced.
  • The mechanics changed again when glancing blows were introduced, on September 5, 2012. Critical hits that become automatic hits become non-critical hits. Confusing? Yeah.
  • Prior to May 22, 2013, the skill Moxious Maneuver allowed using Moxie to determine hit chance regardless of weapon.

See Also