Talk:Levitating Potato

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weight	rounds	actions	
1	51	0	0.00%
2	84	4	4.76%
3	115	6	5.22%
4	148	8	5.41%
5	180	12	6.67%
6	214	19	8.88%
7	262	26	9.92%
8	277	34	12.27%
9	315	36	11.43%
10	345	55	15.94%
11	384	54	14.06%
12	417	79	18.94%
13	444	80	18.02%
14	481	98	20.37%
15	513	123	23.98%
16	549	142	25.87%
17	577	132	22.88%
18	617	167	27.07%
19	643	179	27.84%
20	166	39	23.49%
25	165	56	33.94%
30	163	74	45.40%
35	164	82	50.00%
total:	7274	combat rounds.	

--Hellion 18:03, 13 September 2006 (CDT)

Looks like the block rate needs to be rechecked now, as Jick has stated there was a "secret minor potato nerf": [1]--Salien 21:33, 3 April 2007 (CDT)

It seems likely, that with the new 73 pound normal familiar weight cap, the new formula is something like 1.3*weight percent. This gives about a 95% chance of blocking at the maximal weight. --Wildfire393 14:20, 3 May 2007 (CDT)

Spading the new formulas

Much like with the cuddlefish, I've spaded a couple of low weights and I'm already not liking what I'm seeing.

2-15 pounds

Almost all of this data was collected at cavehippies, with a high level TT whose moxie is well beyond the safe moxie level. The first couple of pounds were collected at Ninja Snowmen with the same character.

I hadn't thought to keep track of crits for the first few hundred rounds at 2 pounds, hence the two entries.

I'm continuing to not like what I'm seeing, but truck on I shall. It looks like the blocking rate just likes to jump every few pounds, but I'll have to add more turns at the lower weights I can still access to help make sure I just wasn't getting abnormal rates. --Flargen 22:22, 26 November 2008 (UTC)

• Oh, yes, the following facts have been observed.
  1. The potato does not block critical hits. Actually, the crit rate data above is making me quite suspicious of the 1/22 chance for any monster to get a critical. Only at a single weight am I below that value, and I'm pretty consistently above it by more than a percentage point. If it turns out that crit rates are not constant amongst monsters, this data will have to be compared to newly spaded rates. I will eventually do a control sample on the cavehippies to check their base crit rate, without the interference of attack blocking.
     • This hypothesis would seem false, given the 50 pound data I just took below. The base critical rate may still well be different than 1/22 at the cave hippies, but certainly the potato CAN block attacks that would otherwise be critical hits. --Flargen 06:42, 28 November 2008 (UTC)
  2. The potato can block a monster's attack after you fumble (it is known that fumbling increases your chances of getting hit, but it is not guaranteed, nor does it otherwise bypass the potato).

  --Flargen 22:27, 26 November 2008 (UTC)

  • Added more data at 5-7 pounds. The anomaly at 7 pounds remains, but 5 pounds has gotten more agreeable at least. --Flargen 05:03, 28 November 2008 (UTC)
  • More data for 10 and 11 pounds, and new data for 14 pounds. 10-11 pound transition seems a little anomalous. Things were finally starting to look non-jump, but then it goes and stabilizes there. Apparently, anyway. The figures still have an error margin of about a percentage point or thereabouts. --Flargen 06:10, 28 November 2008 (UTC)

Added nearly 1000 turns more data for 6 pounds. The anomaly from 6 to 7 pounds has now essentially vanished. In the sense that for all the current data for weights 5-50 pounds, the proposed value of 1.5*Weight% is contained in the two-tailed 95% confidence interval for the data. If the minimum block rate is 5%, then the only value which fails to conform to the proposed formula is 4 pounds. The proposed formula would give 6% for that weight, but the CI for the data stops at about 5.92%. Close, but still rejectable at the 95% level. If they also forced 4 pounds to the 5% rate, then things are fine. I am unable to spade a 4 pound potato any more for some time now (until one of my characters ascends and then breaks the prism). --Flargen 08:03, 28 November 2008 (UTC)

Higher Weights

Spaded out a number of weights from 20-70 pounds. Results are in the table above. The apparent variation in monster crit rates is due to the percentages being very small, and 560 or so trials being rather inadequate to narrow down such a small number. Even the blocking rates have an error from 1-3%. However, the formula is now clear, at least from 5 pounds and beyond. --Flargen 01:01, 30 November 2008 (UTC)

Apparent Formula

Going from the data so far, it looks like the potato has a block rate of 1.5% per pound up to 50 pounds. On subsequent days I will spade some higher weights to see if eventually the block rate formula changes. Indications are that it will. There may be a minimum blockrate of 5% or so, but we're going to need more data at 1-4 pounds to conclude that. --Flargen 06:42, 28 November 2008 (UTC)

• Okay, spading is essentially complete now, excepting the 1-4 pound range. From 5 pounds on, the formula is 1.5*Weight%, maximum of 90%. --Flargen 01:01, 30 November 2008 (UTC)