User:Pnan
From TheKolWiki
Previous Accounts
Jantor
account created: 2006
runs and ascensions:
Pastamancer (Pastamastery)
Pastamancer (Springy Fusilli)(HCO)
Sauceror (HCO)
This account expired during the third run.
Paladen
account created: 2007
runs and ascensions:
Pastamancer
This account expired after defeating 999 hippies during the Level 12 Quest.
Pnan
account created: September 2008
runs and ascensions:
Sauceror (Saucy Salve)(Summon Stickers)
Turtle Tamer (HCO, Bad Moon lead in)
The name "Pnan" was randomly created by slapping keys on a calculator while naming a program.
Familiars
Each of Pnan's familiars are anagrams of either the familiar, its hatchling, or its familiar equipment. Examples:
  mosquito A Squalor Vomit, the Mosquito (anagram of mosquito larva)
  Disembodied Hand Obligatory Strong Pickax, the Disembodied Hand (anagram of spooky rattling cigar box)
  leprechaun Ace Run Help, the Leprechaun (anagram of Leprechaun)
  Cocoabo Colours Patches, the Cocoabo (anagram of chocolate spurs)
  grue Urge, the Grue (anagram of Grue)
Martingale System Analysis for the MMG
Let {B} equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by {M} upon each loss.
| Bet #
| Bet value
| Net Meat after Losing N Bets
| Net Meat after Winning the Nth Bet
|
| N
| B(MN-1)
| B(MN-1)
| B(1-.002(MN-1))
|
Calculating Initial Bet
Total Meat Willing to Lose รท {X} = {B}
I am confident that I will not lose {N} bets in a row
| {N}
| {B}
| chance of loosing it all
|
| 1 | 1 | 50%
|
| 2 | 3 | 25%
|
| 3 | 7 | 12.5%
|
| 4 | 15 | 6.25%
|
| 5 | 31 | 3.125%
|
| 6 | 63 | 1.5625%
|
| 7 | 127 | .78125%
|
| 8 | 255 | .390625%
|
| 9 | 511 | .195313%
|
| 10 | 1023 | .097656%
|
...where X=MN-1
the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns.
Playing with Caution
If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. See Gambler's Fallacy Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.
A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the illusion of having a better chance). If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit. Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.
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