User:Narolf/Different Encounter Probability Spading

From TheKolWiki

This page is dedicated to spading on encounter probabilities in areas where these probabilities are not equal all the time. This project originally sprang from this thread.

Areas

These areas in which this is the case are (italic+bold means there are enough numbers from that area):

• hole in the sky (Astronomer)
• hunted bathroom (Don't Hold a Grudge or Having a Medicine Ball, depending on how you look at it)
• giant castle (wheel stat adventure)
• airship (Irritating Series of Random Encounters)
• south of the border (a chewy encounter)
• knob laboratory (Knob Goblin Mad Scientist)
• knob kitchens (Knob Goblin Chef)
• knob harem (Knob Goblin Harem Girl)
• degrassi knoll (Gnollish Gearhead)
• icy peak (Snow Queen happens less often)
• hippy camp on the verge of war (sergeant)
• frat camp on the verge of war (sergeant)

Data

Knob Kitchens

Dataset 1

Dataset 2

Total

Conclusion

The true appearance rates of the two monsters in the Kitchens are 67% and 33% (2-1 ratio). These appearance rates then in turn get affected by the queue and end up being 64.4% to 35.6% (differences are due to a not big enough sample size).

Knob Laboratory

Dataset 1

Total

Conclusion

The true appearance rates of the two monsters in the Laboratory are 75% and 25% (3-1 ratio). These appearance rates then in turn get affected by the queue and end up being 71.1% to 28.9%. These percentages aren't really showing here, but this dataset was just confirmation for a bigger dataset with a total of 8000 turns.

Hole in the Sky

Dataset 1

Total

Conclusion

The Astronomer has a twice as high appearance rate with a rejection rate of 25% (or something equal in functionality). The queue then does the rest. Simulation showed that the (in reality observed) appearance rate should be around 12.5%, which is reasonably close to the numbers found. All other monsters seem to have the same appearance rate (9.7% from simulation), with maybe the exception of the Little Man in the Canoe combat, but that one is probably just a statistical outlier (that's just a guess though).

BTW, if an encounter roll rejection is only possible once, the appearance rate of Astronomers would be higher by 0.2%, so this dataset would need to be considerably bigger to see how rejections are handled exactly.

Icy Peak

Dataset 1

Total

South of the Border

Dataset 1

Total

Conclusion

Most likely a 3(A Chewy Encounter)-1(Finger-Lickin'... Death)-1(La Farmacia de Suenos) ratio. Simulation showed that that would result in appearance rates of 52.6%, 23.7% and 23.7%, which is reasonably close to the found numbers. In this model, the A Chewy Encounter adventure is seen as one single encounter. Which version of A Chewy Encounter you get will be decided by a four-sided die roll (1d4 for the nerds ;)) or something of equal functionality (1-1-1-1 distribution).

Giant Castle

Dataset 1

Total

Conclusion

The distribution in the Castle is 2-1-1-1, which - thanks to the queue - results in a 43.5% appearance rate for the wheel stat noncombat and a 28.25% chance of appearance for each of the other two noncombats if the wheel is skipped every time.

Haunted Bathroom

There seems to be either something strange going on here, or the RNG had a little fun.

• Dataset 1 was done during a single ascension
• Datasets 2, 3 and 4 were done during a single ascension (200 spent elsewhere between 2 and 3, 400 between 3 and 4)
• Dataset 5 was done during a single ascension
• Dataset 6 was done during a single ascension

Dataset 1

Dataset 2

Dataset 3

Dataset 4

Dataset 5

Dataset 6

Total

Conclusion

The numbers look a little strange, but I'm not willing to throw anymore turns at this. Seems like a 2-2-1-1 distribution for Medicine Ball, Myst grudge, Muscle grudge and Moxie grudge in that order. Note that both Medicine Ball and Myst grudge are entered as two distinct encounters that are handled differently by the queue (same as the Astronomers in the pre-change HitS that were seen as two different combats by the queue). This would theoretically result in appearances rates of 33.3% for Medicine Ball and Myst grudge and 16.7% for the two left over grudes.

Airship

Dataset 1

Total

Conclusion

Most likely a 2-1-1-1-1-1 distribution for Irritating Series of Random Encounters and the other combats. After queue effects, this results in a 22.5% appearance rate for Irritating Series of Random Encounters and 15.5% appearance rates for all other combats.