Talk:Fumble Chance

From TheKolWiki

Since NS13, has this been reevaluated? I'm seeing MUCH higher fumble rates with no obvious fumble modifiers. A quick estimate is 10%, but I'm collecting data to determine more carefully. Current PRELIMINARY data set follows:
date: Friday, August 24, 2007 / Martinus 2
character: Captain Cream (L20 Sauceror, 0 ascensions)
location: Beanbat Chamber
equipment: Bounty-hunting helmet, Bounty-hunting rifle, Bounty-hunting pants, Baron Von Ratsworth's monocle, Makeshift cape
familiar: none
songs: none
buffs: Fat Leon's Phat Loot Lyric
number of turns: 100
number of fumbles: 10 (note - 2 were consecutive within the same round of combat)
--Mis2027 11:52, 24 August 2007 (CDT)

As continuing proof that the RNG hates me, next 30 turns, same character, same day, etc....0 fumbles.

Analysis thus far (10 in 130): expected ~6, chi-square p-value = 0.085
definite trend varying from "1-in-22", but not there yet...
The spading continues...
--Mis2027 12:06, 24 August 2007 (CDT)

Acquired a bunch more data, and it looks like my perception was just out of whack ... pretty consistently, I see a fumble chance very close to 1-in-22. --Mis2027 20:26, 4 September 2007 (CDT)

Stacking

Hm... I know there are only two items that multiply fumble chance (X3 from the Overly Elaborate Ninja Weapon and X2 from the "Humorous" T-Shirt), but does anyone know if those effects stack? Or does it work like criticals where only the highest modifier applies? --Wildfire393 13:43, 6 November 2007 (CST)

Using 2 of the vibrating cyborg knife and 1 humorous t-shirt, I got 3 fumbles out of 65 attacks. (13 of the hits were criticals.) That's a fumble rate of 4.6%, whereas the normal rate is 4.5%. So it really doesn't seem like their stacking. In fact, the std. dev. of the results rule out a x3 fumble factor being in play at all. edit I just noticed that having EoS halves fumble rate, which somewhat invalidates my conclusions.  :) Still there's no way I had x8 crits going from that data. --Starwed 02:15, 22 December 2007 (CST)

Using only the 2 knives I got 14 fumbles out of 162 attacks (18 were crits.) That's a rate of .086. --Starwed 05:21, 22 December 2007 (CST)