Statistics Notes

From TheKolWiki
Jump to: navigation, search

Disclaimer

  • Remember: when viewing statistics on this website, they may not be totally accurate. The contributors to the wiki have done significant research (in most cases) before publishing statistics here, but there is nonetheless always the possibility for error.
  • Jick had stated that he usually codes drop values in multiples of five in the forums, but drop rates are kept to the nearest 0.1%, just in case. (Jick also said on a radio show in February of 2007 that this was in fact not correct, that item drop rates were only kept as integers.)
  • Information on specific statistical wiki-centered projects follows.

Yiab's Item Hunt

  • Currently the main contributor to item drop statistics on this site is Yiab who ensures that the statistics are based on at least 1000 encounters with a given monster before publishing them. All item drop rates are rounded to the nearest 0.1% chance. If you wish to contact Yiab about this project, feel free. Data with only minor preprocessing is available upon request.
    • NOTE: Due to the difficulty of automating combat in the Crimbo Town Toy Factory, only about 1/3 of the reliability can be attributed to the statistics that Yiab has gathered there.
  • A page has been written specifically to present condensed item drop statistics on a single page, in a format easily readable by computer. It is called Parseable Item Statistics. There is a similar page for the data concerning frequencies of adventures in areas, called Parseable Area Statistics.
  • Meat drops gathered during this project may contain the occasional error, as the primary goal of the project was to find out more about item drop rates. Meat drops appear to follow a triangular distribution. Similar to the ones mentioned above, there is a page summarizing meat drop data to be read by a computer, at Parseable Meat Statistics.
  • The following are approximate dates on which the statistics were calculated. If there has been a change in an area since that date, the statistics for that area may be completely invalidated.

Below This Line is Post-NS-13 Data

The Brinier Deepers: Oct. 25, 2008
The Briny Deeps: Oct. 14, 2008
Degrassi Knoll: Jun. 17, 2008
The Misspelled Cemetary (Post-Cyrpt): Jun. 17, 2008
The Haunted Pantry: May 22, 2008
The Haunted Kitchen: May 12, 2008
scary pirate (cursed): May 12, 2008
A Shimmering Portal: Mar. 07, 2008 (attack wall only)
McMillicancuddy's Farm (Post-War): Jan. 29, 2008
The Poop Deck: Jan. 28, 2008
The Guards' Chamber: Jan. 28, 2008
Belowdecks: Jan. 09, 2008 (Torso Awaregness added Jan. 23, 2008)
The F'c'le: Jan. 07, 2008
The Junkyard: Jan. 04, 2008
Barrrney's Barrr: Dec. 31, 2007 (no path)
The Battlefield (War Hippy Fatigues): Dec. 30, 2007 (no sidequests, heroes, or Torso Awaregness)
The Battlefield (Frat Warrior Fatigues): Dec. 29, 2007 (no sidequests or heroes)
Crimbo Town Toy Factory (2007): Dec. 17, 2007
The Hatching Chamber: Nov. 17, 2007
The Orcish Frat House (Bombed Back to the Stone Age): Nov. 10, 2007
The Hippy Camp (Verge of War): Nov. 10, 2007 (also Nov. 24, 2007)
Orcish Frat House (Verge of War): Nov. 03, 2007 (also Nov. 17, 2007)
The Hippy Camp (Bombed Back to the Stone Age): Nov. 03, 2007
Wine Racks: Nov. 03, 2007
Whitey's Grove: Nov. 03, 2007
The Black Forest: Jul. 22, 2007
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert: Jul. 26, 2007 (with Ultrahydrated)
The Palindome: Jul. 30, 2007
An Oasis: Aug. 14, 2007 (with Torso Awaregness)
Laboratory: Aug. 14, 2007
South of The Border: Aug. 14, 2007
The Upper Chamber: Aug. 31, 2007
The Middle Chamber: Aug. 31, 2007

Below This Line is Pre-NS-13 Data

Crimbo Town Toy Factory (2005): Dec. 30, 2005
The Goatlet: Jan. 05, 2006
Lair of the Ninja Snowmen: Apr. 16, 2006
The Valley Beyond The Orc Chasm: Dec. 30, 2005
The Icy Peak: Dec. 30, 2005
The Penultimate Fantasy Airship: Sept. 21, 2006
Itznotyerzitz Mine: Jan. 21, 2006
The eXtreme Slope: Jan. 21, 2006
The Obligatory Pirate's Cove: Jan. 21, 2006
Fernswarthy's Tower: Jan. 27, 2006
The Misspelled Cemetary (Pre-Cyrpt): Jan. 30, 2006
The "Fun" House: Jan. 31, 2006
Entryway: Feb. 02, 2006
Guano Junction: Jun. 01, 2006
Beanbat Chamber: Feb. 04, 2006
Batrat and Ratbat Burrow: Feb. 05, 2006
Outskirts of Cobb's Knob: Feb. 08, 2006
Menagerie Level 1: Feb. 11, 2006
Menagerie Level 2: Feb. 13, 2006
Menagerie Level 3: Feb. 15, 2006
Treasury: Feb. 19, 2006 (without Torso Awaregness)
The Castle in the Clouds in the Sky: Feb. 23, 2006
The Hole in the Sky: Jun. 06, 2006
The Hippy Camp: Sept. 09, 2006
Orcish Frat House: Mar. 06, 2006
Outskirts of Camp Logging Camp: Mar. 09, 2006
Thugnderdome: Mar. 10, 2006
The Spooky Forest: May 03, 2006
Harem: Mar. 25, 2006
The Deep Fat Friars' Gate: Mar. 25, 2006
The Sleazy Back Alley: Mar. 29, 2006 (also Jul. 14, 2006)
The Spectral Pickle Factory: Apr. 01, 2006
Camp Logging Camp: Apr. 05, 2006 (also Nov. 08, 2006)
8-Bit Realm: Apr. 18, 2006 (also May 19, 2006, also also Aug. 21, 2006)
The Hedge Maze: May 13, 2006
A Battlefield: Jun. 01, 2006 (in Cloaca-Cola Uniform)
The Dungeons of Doom: Jun. 09, 2006
Spanish fly (from The Hippy Camp): Jun. 19, 2006
A Battlefield: Jun. 20, 2006 (in Dyspepsi-Cola Uniform)
Orcish Frat House (again): Jun. 20, 2006
The Typical Tavern: Jun. 26, 2006
The Bugbear Pens: Jul. 10, 2006
The Spooky Gravy Barrow: Jul. 18, 2006
The Knob Shaft: Jul. 23, 2006
Bad Trip: Jul. 26, 2006
Mediocre Trip: Jul. 28, 2006
Great Trip: Jul. 30, 2006
roofie (from Orcish Frat House): Aug. 09, 2006
flaregun (from The Obligatory Pirate's Cove): Aug. 12, 2006
Kitchens: Sept. 05, 2006
The Haunted Bathroom: Sept. 26, 2006
The Haunted Conservatory: Oct. 02, 2006
The Haunted Gallery: Oct. 14, 2006
The Haunted Library: Oct. 16, 2006
The Haunted Bedroom: Oct. 20, 2006
The Haunted Ballroom: Oct. 23, 2006
Simple Tool-Making Cave: Dec. 03, 2006
The Spooky Fright Factory: Dec. 07, 2006
The Crimborg Collective Factory: Dec. 11, 2006

Statistics from Others

Amateur Statistics

  • Some statistics may say: "Approx. X% Chance".
  • These are used for rough figures until Yiab posts more reliable data.


Drop-capping method

With power-creep over the years, capping drops has become more and more feasible, which a spade can use to their advantage. This method assumes that item drop rates really are always integer percent values as suggested in that Feb 07 radio show, and that the drop is either unconditional or has a condition that you can guarantee is true the entire session.

If you think the drop rate is, say, 20%, you should run a few dozen adventures with just enough bonus Item Drops from Monsters to cap a 21% drop rate. To calculate this:

(100 / 21) - 1 = 3.76
(100 / 20) - 1 = 4.00
(100 / 19) - 1 = 4.26

So you should aim for at least +376% item, but less than 400%. Adventure until the target enemy fails to drop the target item -- this will confirm that the drop rate is definitely less than 21%. Then, boost your item drops to at least 400%, but less than 426%. Adventure until either the item fails to drop (proving that the base rate is actually even lower) or you've spent an absolutely preposterous number of adventures on this. More adventures = more confidence!

After 100 wins and 100 drops at exactly +400% item drops, the probability that the drop rate is actually 19% is:

(.19 * 5.00 ) ^ 100 = 0.006

A small number, to be sure. Spend 50 more adventures, though, and...

(.19 * 5.00) ^ 150 = 0.0005

A whole order of magnitude more confidence! Is it enough? That's up to you, but know that you can't ever be 100% confident that you've really capped the drop rather than the RNG screwing with you -- but with enough adventures you can get as close to 100% confident as you like. The usual standard is 95% confidence, though you can certainly go higher if you have nothing better to do with your adventures.

Live. Ascend. Repeat.

The Fall 2017 challenge path has made spading drop rates below 50% much simpler. If (base rate * drop modifier) > 50, the item will drop every time. If not, it will never drop. RNG is no longer a factor.

Base Drop % +Item% Needed
To Guarantee Drop
Examples
5% +900% blasting soda
10% +400% filthworm scent glands
15% +234% A-Boo clues, rusty hedge trimmers
20% +150% tomb ratchet, harem pants, harem veil
25% +100% bird ribs, lion oil
30% +67% stars, lines, hot wings
35% +43%
40% +25% goat cheese, bowling balls
45% +12%
50+% - bubblin' crude, Gnollish toolbox, tires

This can still be used to spade drop rates above 50%, but there are fewer reliable methods of reducing one's drop rate, and much less room to work with.